Post-9/11 Airline Demand

I am linking my research in a table below. The first table calculates the percentage impact on air travel due to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. The table tracks the months that followed from September of 2001 until the end of 2005. The Domestic numbers are on the left column, International on the right. The percentage table references the month-by-month comparison of passenger enplanements from the rolling twelve months prior to 9/11. The video below describes the tables in more detail.

 

Domestic % of 2000-2001 International  
Sep-0130,49966%Sep-014,10970%
Oct-0140,24279%Oct-013,78967%
Nov-0140,64782%Nov-014,03176%
Dec-0140,86087%Dec-014,67685%
Jan-0238,49987%Jan-024,78686%
Feb-0238,56189%Feb-024,44189%
Mar-0248,39791%Mar-025,60292%
Apr-0245,35889%Apr-025,10086%
May-0247,05092%May-025,35191%
Jun-0249,09592%Jun-025,84890%
Jul-0251,06592%Jul-026,32191%
Aug-0251,14191%Aug-026,41892%
Sep-0240,14387%Sep-025,08287%
Oct-0248,05594%Oct-025,10091%
Nov-0244,85090%Nov-024,86691%
Dec-0249,684106%Dec-025,36098%
Jan-0343,03298%Jan-035,20694%
Feb-0341,16795%Feb-034,53091%
Mar-0349,99394%Mar-035,30587%
Apr-0347,03393%Apr-034,56077%
May-0349,15296%May-034,81982%
Jun-0352,21098%Jun-035,63587%
Jul-0355,811100%Jul-036,46693%
Aug-0353,92196%Aug-036,56795%
Sep-0344,21395%Sep-035,10587%
Oct-0349,94598%Oct-035,20292%
Nov-0347,05995%Nov-035,13196%
Dec-0349,757106%Dec-035,650103%
Jan-0443,81599%Jan-045,565100%
Feb-0445,307105%Feb-045,222105%
Mar-0454,147102%Mar-046,114100%
Apr-0453,253105%Apr-045,944101%
May-0453,031104%May-046,050102%
Jun-0456,959107%Jun-046,684103%
Jul-0459,614107%Jul-047,483108%
Aug-0457,381102%Aug-047,295105%
Sep-0447,672103%Sep-045,67097%
Oct-0454,167106%Oct-045,896105%
Nov-0451,782104%Nov-045,663106%
Dec-0452,640112%Dec-046,338116%
Jan-0547,978109%Jan-056,457116%
Feb-0547,075109%Feb-055,783116%
Mar-0558,839111%Mar-057,260119%
Apr-0554,909108%Apr-056,659113%
May-0557,324112%May-056,862116%
Jun-0559,724112%Jun-057,414114%
Jul-0562,396112%Jul-058,178118%
Aug-0559,111105%Aug-057,730111%
Sep-0550,600109%Sep-056,219106%
Oct-0553,738106%Oct-056,160109%
Nov-0552,766106%Nov-055,941112%
Dec-0552,801112%Dec-056,704123%

Great Recession Airline Demand

The second table tracks passenger enplanements following the effects of the Great Recession. The percentages reflect the monthly numbers in the rolling twelve months prior to the decrease in passenger traffic. It is interesting to note that international travel, with few exceptions, was at or greater than pre-recession levels throughout the period.

Domestic % of 2006 International % of 2006
Jul-0861,402101%Jul-089,072105%
Aug-0858,966101%Aug-088,862108%
Sep-0847,68095%Sep-086,553101%
Oct-0852,95696%Oct-086,717102%
Nov-0847,65888%Nov-086,39799%
Dec-0850,25495%Dec-087,129106%
Jan-0944,82292%Jan-096,987104%
Feb-0943,67792%Feb-096,166103%
Mar-0953,53192%Mar-097,44699%
Apr-0952,24594%Apr-097,29599%
May-0952,94993%May-096,79793%
Jun-0955,89894%Jun-097,67897%
Jul-0959,46998%Jul-098,640100%
Aug-0956,56897%Aug-098,464104%
Sep-0948,23597%Sep-096,44399%
Oct-0952,27995%Oct-096,530100%
Nov-0948,58590%Nov-096,25097%
Dec-0949,79394%Dec-097,152107%
Jan-1045,50293%Jan-107,050105%
Feb-1042,44190%Feb-106,241104%
Mar-1054,42493%Mar-107,795103%
Apr-1052,49894%Apr-107,16197%
May-1053,84294%May-107,626104%
Jun-1056,69096%Jun-108,322105%
Jul-1059,14397%Jul-109,292107%
Aug-1057,37198%Aug-108,883109%
Sep-1050,305101%Sep-107,047109%
Oct-1054,826100%Oct-107,298111%
Nov-1051,42095%Nov-106,737105%
Dec-1051,07697%Dec-107,507112%
Jan-1146,30595%Jan-117,386110%
Feb-1143,65892%Feb-116,420107%
Mar-1155,64995%Mar-117,929105%
Apr-1152,85995%Apr-117,672104%
May-1155,98298%May-117,871108%
Jun-1157,77997%Jun-118,465107%
Jul-1160,31099%Jul-119,600111%
Aug-1157,40498%Aug-118,895109%
Sep-1150,982102%Sep-117,086109%
Oct-1154,12498%Oct-117,079108%
Nov-1151,66096%Nov-116,611103%

Below is a graph of the Demand Curve for airline travel through the period of mass shut-ins and economic closure. The tail end of the graph shows the initial return of demand, on an apparent exponential trajectory. 

The following graph shows what the combined effects of both the Great Recession and 9/11 would have been on airline demand. The scale on the x-axis is in months. The percentages are based upon peak demand levels prior to the demand disruptions.

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Stan

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